By Nicos Christodoulakis
This ebook offers a quantitative framework for the research of clash dynamics and for estimating the commercial expenses linked to civil wars. the writer develops transformed Lotka-Volterra equations to version clash dynamics, to yield real looking representations of conflict strategies, and to permit us to evaluate lengthy clash traps. the industrial bills of civil wars are evaluated with the aid of replacement tools: first of all, the writer employs a construction functionality to figure out how the destruction of human and actual capital shares undermines fiscal development within the medium time period. Secondly, he develops a man-made keep watch over strategy, the place the price is got because the divergence of tangible financial task from a hypothetical course within the absence of civil warfare. the variation among the 2 ways provides a sign of the hostile externalities impinging upon the economic system within the kind of institutional destruction. through the use of targeted time-series concerning conflict casualties, neighborhood socio-economic signs, and capital inventory destruction throughout the Greek Civil warfare (1946-1949), a full-scale software of the above framework is gifted and discussed.
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Extra info for An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949
For the same reason, a country that has recently experienced a war and fallen in poverty is more likely to get trapped into another conflict. Extensive empirical confirmation of the above analysis is provided by several authors. Perhaps the most representative evidence presented for modern civil wars is the collection of research articles included in a two-volume publication supervised by Collier and Sambanis (2005). Their findings suggest that variables such as per capita income, the growth rate of the economy, and male secondary education enrollment, have statistically significant and substantial effects on influencing the opportunity of rebellion.
The King returned in September 1946 after a referendum, conducted with the full participation of the Communist Party. A month later the Communist Party decided to organize the Democratic Army of Greece (DAG), and openly called for an armed struggle to overthrow the ‘monarchfascist’ Government. As the Civil War started to unfold, Britain withdrew from Greece, and the move gave the impression that the guerrillas could win the conflict. But the power vacuum was soon filled by the US, after President Truman proclaimed in 1947 his doctrine of containing the expansion of communism.
Though the Government hailed the camp as a “moral transforming institution”, several of the interns perished out of torture and starvation; for an account, see Kaltsogia-Tournaviti (2001). 22 2 The Greek Civil War 1946–1949: Main Events and Data 6,000 5,000 Military aid to DAG, tons Military & medical 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1948 1948 1948 1948 1949 1949 1949 1949 1949 1949 1949 1949 1949 Fig. 4 Military and non-military aid delivered to DAG.